There’s something about the Paris Masters that makes it worth watching right to the end of the tennis season. The players might be feeling the miles in their legs, but there’s still plenty to fight for. A Masters 1000 trophy, valuable ranking points and places at the ATP Finals can make even an early-round match feel like a major occasion.

The 2026 Rolex Paris Masters runs from 2–8 November, bringing the final Masters 1000 event of the year to the Paris La Défense Arena. With the opening matches already underway, attention turns to the leading contenders and the question of who can produce one more big week before Turin.

Alexander Zverev heads the draw, Carlos Alcaraz is chasing a breakthrough at this tournament, and Novak Djokovic has another opportunity to remind everyone how dangerous he remains. Add Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev and the home hopes surrounding Arthur Fils, and there are plenty of reasons to keep the remote close.

A New Champion Is Guaranteed

One important name is missing from the field: defending champion Jannik Sinner.

The Italian has ended his season because of a knee injury, meaning he will not defend his Paris title. His absence changes the tournament considerably and removes one of the most formidable obstacles from the draw.

That opens an opportunity, but it doesn’t make anyone’s job easy. Indoor tennis can leave very little room for a slow start. A loose service game, a missed return at break point or a poor few minutes in a tie-break can change an entire match.

For the favourites, the challenge is to establish control early. For everyone else, the task is to keep the contest close enough to make the favourite uncomfortable.

Alexander Zverev: Can the Top Seed Take Charge?

Zverev arrives as the new world No. 1 and a former Paris champion, having won the tournament in 2024. Those credentials make him an obvious starting point when discussing the title contenders.

From a tactical point of view, his serve and two-handed backhand give him a strong foundation indoors. When he lands a high percentage of first serves, opponents can find themselves working hard simply to stay level. His backhand also allows him to absorb pace and redirect the ball without needing to take unnecessary risks.

The question is how assertively he uses his forehand. Against the strongest opponents, keeping the ball deep will only take him so far. There will be moments when he needs to step forward and finish the point.

His first assignment is already an interesting one. Lorenzo Musetti beat Hubert Hurkacz in two tie-break sets on Monday to book a meeting with the top seed. That gives Zverev an opening opponent who has already dealt with pressure in the arena.

My view is that Zverev deserves to be among the leading favourites. But the ranking beside his name won’t win the difficult points for him.

Carlos Alcaraz: Time for a Paris Breakthrough?

Alcaraz sits at the opposite end of the draw as the second seed. For all his success elsewhere, this tournament has yet to bring him the kind of deep run many would expect: he has never progressed beyond the quarter-finals here.

That gives his campaign an intriguing edge.

Alcaraz has the variety to make almost any opponent uncomfortable. He can accelerate off the forehand, change the height of the rally, use the drop shot and move forward to finish at the net. When those options work together, defending against him becomes a guessing game.

The challenge indoors is choosing the right option quickly enough. There is a balance between playing with freedom and giving away points through unnecessary ambition.

For me, his best approach would be to establish a solid serving rhythm, make his opponents defend first and introduce the extra variety once he has control of the rally.

If he finds that balance, he has every reason to believe this could be his week.

Ben Shelton: A Serious Threat With the Serve to Match

Third seed Ben Shelton is another player worth following closely. He is already assured of a place at the ATP Finals, allowing him to approach Paris without the same qualification pressure facing some of his rivals.

His left-handed serve is the obvious weapon. It can pull opponents away from the court and create room for an aggressive next shot. In close matches, the ability to produce a strong first serve at 30-all or break point is a considerable advantage.

But the serve alone won’t carry him through the whole field. The return games matter, particularly against opponents who can protect their own delivery.

Shelton’s next opponent is Cameron Norrie, who came through a three-set opening match against Matteo Arnaldi. That presents an interesting tactical contest: Shelton will want to shorten exchanges, while Norrie will look to make him play extra balls and earn his openings.

If Shelton stays patient when the quick winner isn’t available, he could be difficult to stop.

Daniil Medvedev: Don’t Overlook the Fourth Seed

Medvedev has also secured his return to the ATP Finals. According to the ATP, he passed 50 match wins this season and collected four titles before arriving in Paris, giving substance to his status as a contender.

His game presents a different kind of examination from Shelton’s.

Medvedev can make an opponent feel as though a rally has been won, only for another deep ball to arrive. His reach, movement and ability to absorb pace force players to be precise for longer than they would like.

The tactical question is how well he balances defence with court position. Against aggressive opponents, spending too much time behind the baseline can leave him vulnerable to short angles and net approaches.

If he serves efficiently and takes opportunities to move forward, he has the tools to frustrate the biggest hitters in the draw.

He may not provide the most spectacular tennis every minute, but he is capable of making a spectacular player look very uncomfortable.

Novak Djokovic: A Familiar Name With Plenty at Stake

Djokovic is seeded tenth and opens against Valentin Vacherot. He does not receive a first-round bye, so his campaign requires an immediate start rather than an extra day to settle in.

The appeal of watching Djokovic in this setting is easy to understand. His return of serve can take away the advantage an opponent expects to enjoy indoors. His backhand gives him control in neutral exchanges, and his ability to recognise patterns can become increasingly influential as a match develops.

The question is whether he can maintain the physical and competitive intensity across consecutive rounds.

There is also qualification pressure. His official website identifies Paris as his final opportunity to secure a place at the season-ending ATP Finals. That gives his matches significance beyond the immediate result.

I wouldn’t dismiss his chances because of the seeding. Equally, his reputation cannot spare him a demanding opening match. He needs to establish his level from the first round.

Can Arthur Fils Give the Home Crowd a Week to Remember?

A French contender always adds something to this tournament, and sixth seed Arthur Fils gives the home supporters a player to get behind.

Fils arrives with a Cincinnati title among his achievements this season, while Ugo Humbert brings the experience of reaching the Paris final in 2024. Both give the French challenge credibility beyond crowd support alone.

For Fils, the key will be managing the energy around him. A home crowd can lift a player through a difficult spell, but it can also encourage the temptation to go for too much.

He will want to play positively without feeling that every point needs a huge finish.

The draw offers the possibility of a quarter-final against Alcaraz. There is work to do before that becomes a reality, but it would certainly be one of the week’s most appealing matches.

The Draw: Where Could the Big Matches Come?

If the seedings hold, these are the projected quarter-finals:

Projected quarter-final	What makes it interesting
Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur	Zverev’s serving power against De Minaur’s speed and return pressure
Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe	An attacking contest with plenty of scope for momentum changes
Flavio Cobolli vs Daniil Medvedev	Cobolli’s opportunity to challenge Medvedev’s control in extended rallies
Arthur Fils vs Carlos Alcaraz	A home favourite against one of the most creative players in the sport

These are possible meetings based on the seedings, rather than confirmed fixtures.

The temptation is to look straight ahead to those matches, but the earlier rounds deserve attention too. Djokovic against Vacherot, Tommy Paul against Holger Rune, and Stefanos Tsitsipas against Learner Tien are all opening-round pairings with plenty of interest.

What Will Decide the Title?

The first factor is serving under pressure. A player doesn’t need to lead the ace count to serve well; finding the right delivery when facing a break point can matter far more.

The second is the return. Against the strongest servers, there may only be a handful of genuine chances in a set. Getting enough returns into play creates the possibility of applying pressure.

Then there’s decision-making. Indoor tennis rewards commitment, but aggressive play still needs a purpose. Choosing when to approach the net, when to change direction and when to stay in a rally could separate the contenders.

Finally, there is physical freshness. At this stage of the season, an efficient early-round win can be valuable. A player who spends hours escaping trouble may feel the cost later in the week.

Those are the areas I’ll be watching, rather than simply counting winners.

My Pick for the Trophy

My early choice is Alexander Zverev, with Carlos Alcaraz the strongest alternative.

Zverev’s serving strength and ability to control exchanges from the backhand side make him a convincing candidate. The challenge will be to stay positive when an opponent takes away his first option.

Alcaraz has the range of shots to disrupt anyone’s rhythm, and a confident start could make him increasingly dangerous as the week develops.

Shelton is my alternative pick, while Medvedev is the contender I would be particularly wary of overlooking. Djokovic remains capable of changing the conversation if he gets through the opening rounds strongly.

That is a prediction rather than a certainty. A difficult draw, a tight tie-break or one inspired opponent can quickly make a preview look very optimistic.

Paris still has plenty of tennis to deliver before anyone gets their hands on the trophy. With a new world No. 1 leading the field, qualification pressure adding urgency and the home crowd waiting for something to celebrate, this looks like a week worth making time for.